Clinical trial results in context: comparison of baseline characteristics and outcomes of 38,510 RECOVERY trial participants versus a reference population of 346,271 people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England
Pessoa-Amorim G., Goldacre R., Crichton C., Stevens W., Nunn M., King A., Murray D., Welsh R., Pinches H., Rees A., Morris E., Landray M., Haynes R., Horby P., Wallendszus K., Peto L., Campbell M., Harper C., Mafham M.
Background: Randomised trials are essential to reliably assess medical interventions. Nevertheless, interpretation of such studies, particularly when considering absolute effects, is enhanced by understanding how the trial population may differ from the populations it aims to represent. Methods: We compared baseline characteristics and mortality of RECOVERY participants recruited in England (n= 38510) with a reference population hospitalised with COVID-19 in England (n = 346271) from March 2020 - November 2021. We used linked hospitalisation and mortality data for both cohorts to extract demographics, comorbidity/frailty scores, and crude and age- and sex-adjusted 28-day all-cause mortality. Results: Demographics of RECOVERY participants were broadly similar to the reference population, but RECOVERY participants were younger (mean age [standard deviation]: RECOVERY 62.6 [15.3] vs reference 65.7 [18.5] years) and less frequently female (37% vs 45%). Comorbidity and frailty scores were lower in RECOVERY, but differences were attenuated after age stratification. Age- and sex-adjusted 28-day mortality declined over time but was similar between cohorts across the study period (RECOVERY 23.7% [95% confidence interval: 23.3%-24.1%]; vs reference 24.8% [24.6%-24.9%]), except during the first pandemic wave in the UK (March-May 2020) when adjusted mortality was lower in RECOVERY. Conclusions: Adjusted 28-day mortality in RECOVERY was similar to a nationwide reference population of patients admitted with COVID-19 in England during the same period but varied substantially over time in both cohorts. Therefore, the absolute effect estimates from RECOVERY were broadly applicable to the target population at the time, but should be interpreted in the light of current mortality estimates. Trial registration: ISRCTN50189673, NCT04381936