Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.
Klepac P., Hsieh JL., Ducker CL., Assoum M., Booth M., Byrne I., Dodson S., Martin DL., Turner CMR., van Daalen KR., Abela B., Akamboe J., Alves F., Brooker SJ., Ciceri-Reynolds K., Cole J., Desjardins A., Drakeley C., Ediriweera DS., Ferguson NM., Gabrielli AF., Gahir J., Jain S., John MR., Juma E., Kanayson P., Deribe K., King JD., Kipingu AM., Kiware S., Kolaczinski J., Kulei WJ., Laizer TL., Lal V., Lowe R., Maige JS., Mayer S., McIver L., Mosser JF., Nicholls RS., Nunes-Alves C., Panjwani J., Parameswaran N., Polson K., Radoykova H-S., Ramani A., Reimer LJ., Reynolds ZM., Ribeiro I., Robb A., Sanikullah KH., Smith DRM., Shirima GG., Shott JP., Tidman R., Tribe L., Turner J., Vaz Nery S., Velayudhan R., Warusavithana S., Wheeler HS., Yajima A., Abdilleh AR., Hounkpatin B., Wangmo D., Whitty CJM., Campbell-Lendrum D., Hollingsworth TD., Solomon AW., Fall IS.
To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.