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BACKGROUND: Pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) experience the highest levels of maternal mortality and stillbirths due to predominantly avoidable causes. Antenatal care (ANC) can prevent, detect, alleviate, or manage these causes. While eight ANC contacts are now recommended, coverage of the previous minimum of four visits (ANC4+) remains low and inequitable in SSA. METHODS: We modelled ANC4+ coverage and likelihood of attaining district-level target coverage of 70% across three equity stratifiers (household wealth, maternal education, and travel time to the nearest health facility) based on data from malaria indicator surveys in Kenya (2020), Uganda (2018/19) and Tanzania (2017). Geostatistical models were fitted to predict ANC4+ coverage and compute exceedance probability for target coverage. The number of pregnant women without ANC4+ were computed. Prediction was at 3 km spatial resolution and aggregated at national and district -level for sub-national planning. RESULTS: About six in ten women reported ANC4+ visits, meaning that approximately 3 million women in the three countries had  20,000 women having

Original publication




Journal article


BMC Pregnancy Childbirth

Publication Date





Antenatal care, District, Household wealth, Inequities, Kenya, Maternal education, Model-based geostatistics, Subnational, Tanzania, Travel time to healthcare, Uganda, Pregnancy, Female, Humans, Prenatal Care, Kenya, Geography, Maternal Death, Uganda