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BACKGROUND: In locations where few people have received coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed. METHODS: We prospectively recruited adults presenting to 2 hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2  30 BPM; SpO2/FiO2 

Original publication




Journal article


Clin Infect Dis

Publication Date





e368 - e379


COVID-19, LMIC, low- and middle-income country, prognostic model, triage, Adult, COVID-19, Disease Progression, Humans, Interleukin-6, Models, Statistical, Patient Discharge, Patient Safety, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Receptors, Urokinase Plasminogen Activator, Reproducibility of Results, SARS-CoV-2