One-size-fits-all versus risk-category-based screening interval strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study
Sun Z., Ma Y., Yu C., Sun D., Pang Y., Pei P., Yang L., Chen Y., Du H., Zhang H., Yang X., Barnard M., Clarke R., Chen J., Chen Z., Li L., Lv J., Collins R., Peto R., Walters R., Avery D., Bennett D., Belbasis L., Boxall R., Chan KH., Clarke C., Clarke J., Mohamed AE., Fry H., Gilbert S., Im PK., Iona A., Kakkoura M., Kartsonaki C., Lam H., Lin K., Liu J., Mazidi M., Millwood I., Morris S., Nie Q., Pozarickij A., Rahmati M., Ryder P., Said S., Schmidt D., Stevens B., Turnbull I., Wang B., Wang L., Wright N., Yao P., Han X., Hou C., Xia Q., Liu C., Pan L., Pang Z., Gao R., Li S., Duan H., Wang S., Liu Y., Du R., Zang Y., Cheng L., Tian X., Zhang H., Zhai Y., Ning F., Sun X., Li F., Lv S., Wang J., Hou W., Sun W., Yan S., Cui X., Wang C., Wu Z., Li Y., Kang Q., Luo H., Ou T., Zheng X., Guo Z., Wu S., Li Y., Li H., Wu M., Zhou Y., Zhou J., Tao R., Yang J., Fang Liu JS., Zhang J., Hu Y., Lu Y., Ma L., Tang A.
Background: In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population. Methods: We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol. Findings: When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%–21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83–138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30–79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs. Interpretation: For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population. Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).