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OBJECTIVE: Insulin resistance (IR) may mediate heart failure (HF) development. We examined whether IR in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) increased their risk of a composite outcome of HF or death or of HF alone. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) values for UKPDS participants were derived from paired fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and insulin measures. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable survival models were used to evaluate associations between HOMA2-IR and HF/death or HF alone. We adjusted for potential confounders by including variables with univariate associations (P < 0.1) and by requiring a multivariable P < 0.05. RESULTS: Of 5,102 UKPDS participants with newly diagnosed T2D, 4,344 had HOMA2-IR measurements. At enrollment, mean (SD) age was 52.5 (8.7) years, with HbA1c 7.2% (1.8%), and BMI 28.8 (5.5) kg/m2, and median (interquartile range) HOMA2-IR was 1.6 (1.1-2.2). HF/death occurred in 1,974 (45.4%) participants (235 first HF events, 1,739 deaths) over a median follow-up of 16.4 years. Multivariable independent associations with HF/death were older age and higher BMI, HOMA2-IR, FPG, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and heart rate as well as sex, race, smoking status, prior atrial fibrillation, and prior microalbuminuria. A doubling of HOMA2-IR was associated with a 5% greater risk of HF/death (relative risk [RR] 1.05 [95% CI 1.01-1.12], P = 0.0029) and a 14% greater risk of HF (RR 1.14, [95% CI 1.02-1.27], P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with newly diagnosed T2D and insulin resistance were more likely to develop HF or die than those more sensitive to insulin.

Original publication




Journal article


Diabetes Care

Publication Date





1877 - 1884


Aged, Blood Glucose, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Heart Failure, Humans, Insulin, Insulin Resistance, Middle Aged, Risk Factors